The Covid-19 tide table

 
627Views 7Comments Posted 13/06/2021

By  Dra Marta Illueca La Prensa Jun.13

In Panama, we have the great blessing of being a double coastal country. The vast majority of the population has easy access to beaches for healthy fun, but they are not without their dangers and risks to life. For this reason, we rely on our beach culture and also on the weather experience. The latter informs us of the behavior pattern of this giant of our planet, which bathes us and offers us hospitality in its waters, in addition to all due precautions.

The oceans have a consistent movement, caused by the gravitational force between our planet and, the moon. The tides are the result of this interaction and are recurring, predictable, and variable. Those who regularly use the beaches have a habit of observing the intensity of the waves, their height, and speed, and others check the tide tables. It is easy to bathe and swim at low tide, as it is much safer than venturing out to compete with the waves at high tide. It is not pleasant to be "rolled" by a wave. The World Health Organization tabulated 236,000 drownings in 2019. Globally, deaths from drowning are the third leading cause of death due to accidental trauma and are the fifth leading cause of death in pediatric age, more frequent in the first 4 years of life. It is logical, then, that the fear of drowning induces us to check the tide tables or at least observe the rhythm of the waves before entering the sea. And just as bathers rely on the aforementioned tide tables, we also have technologies that protect us from the most dangerous waves, such as breakwaters and lifeguards.

This analogy of the tides helps me to address a worrying topic, which is the reason for countless questions regarding Covid-19. Are we going to have a third wave? A fourth? Will it be worse than the previous one? Will the quarantine and the collapse of the health system return? I suggest leaning on the science of epidemiology to understand that epidemics have waves and tidal patterns that can be analyzed and dealt with. Covid-19 is still a new disease. We do not have the benefit of time to draw a curve, long enough, to predict the periodicity of the spikes. And it is also too early to see the effect of vaccination on the observed peaks. The most essential thing is to understand that more waves could occur until a couple of scenarios occur. Either herd immunity is achieved or we achieve such a degree of vaccination that the transmissibility of the coronavirus and its health impact weakens like a simple “stride”, with few complicated cases and few deaths.

To face the waves of Covid-19, we have two main strategies, one at the community level and the other at the personal level. Mass vaccination is the community breakwater and the decision to get vaccinated is your personal lifesaver. Neither strategy is perfect. Thus, there will always be drowning, for not knowing how to swim or for not wanting to use life jackets or even for being unwary. And then, of course, there will be bad weather and changes in the weather beyond our control.

The same will be with Covid-19. Not getting vaccinated is like “riding” with the waves of a choppy sea, without a life jacket. The “waves” of the virus will continue and our responsibility is one of mutual solidarity, to support vaccination and biosecurity measures. Health authorities must be left to monitor each new wave or rebound while monitoring community transmission and new variants of the virus. It is up to us to lead a responsible life, avoid "high tides" and put on our life jackets.

The author is a doctor, scientific researcher and theologian

 

 

 



Comments 7

user
Banjaxed

A good analogy can help even the simple minded to understand complex situations. The analogy used in this article, whilst not being the best, is reasonably good. Unfortunately, it's not good enough for most of the tin foil hat brigade that frequent the NRP comment section..

1 month ago
user
MHogan

The author is a physician AND A THEOLOGIAN who wrote a paper on “demonic/spirit possession”. According to her online bio, she lives/practices (her priesthood duties? as well as gastroenterology in Wilmington, Delaware (perhaps she’s too close to the crazies in the US Capital). It appears she is Panamanian.

1 month ago
user
MHogan

Let’s see: first they tried fear—that worked for awhile; then they gave us a break, knowing that fear gets tired after awhile; then they brought on the “variants” and started up on fear again, knowing people don’t want to return to restrictions; they offer up a salvo—a “vaccine” which is not a vaccine at all but a bioweapon with the promise of only mild symptoms and a way to achieve immunity (both blatant lies); but only 50% (+/-) were gullible to the propaganda; coercions followed, offering prizes and a grand lottery (tactic is illegal but that doesn’t matter); all the while , MSM is in cahoots with technocracy and any alternative science is suppressed and doctors are threatened if they go against the establishment; unfortunately for the “bad” guys, new avenues to allow free speech to open up and people learn they, as an individual or a collective group, are not alone in their concern about vaccines or the health handling of the situation but problems with alternative treatments prove to be effective, that the health profession watched people get very sick or succumb and failed in their oath to “do no harm” by early outpatient protocols; and how they used Scientism* not Science to control the population with masks, social distancing, and lockdowns, etc while watching the economy crumble and people’s lives being devastated (and all other health issues put on hold to the detriment of the mass population for the sake of 0.0x%). But the need to get a shot in every arm prevails no matter the consequences down the road, so another carrot is offered: freedom! My God, don’t they know those with more than two brain cells who watch their million-dollar ads on tv where people who (supposedly) got the jab, holds up their arms and claims “everyone deserves to be free”. This is one of the most disgusting ads I’ve ever seen — as though the medical establishment, the government, BigPharma, or some Technocrat takes on the power of a God-given right to freedom. Or, how about the adolescents who, on a tv ad, thank their parents for letting them know they are free to take the jab. THESE PROPAGANDISTS ARE SICK !! But they’re not finished yet, vaccine passports, no masking needed, freedom to travel and move about in Society are not motivating enough anti-vaxxers into compliance and now this article tries a unique approach of “reason” with an analogy that fails to hit home and combine that with 3 new articles to go back to fear. Sorry guys! We’re throwing fear aside, deal with it. We’ll continue to go with Science and if it means you desire to create a non-vaxxed apartheid, know that it is only temporary —a revolt is coming and sanity will be restored. *Scientism” = Scientism is science as an ideology. Where science is a practice and body of knowledge, its principles and methods can also be adopted as an expansive belief or doctrine.The term scientism has distinctly negative connotations as being an expansion of science into unwarranted situations or excessive claims that aren't supported by current scientific knowledge.

1 month ago
user
little_bird

"The author is a doctor, scientific researcher and theologian". HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Science and Theology...ahahahahahah. Useless WANKERS! So much unprofessionalism in one pile. The author must be a Panamanian.

1 month ago
user
Nito_Corrupto

I'd rather depend on my SWIMMING Skills, than on a perforated life jacket. F-YOU with your sublimental Propaganda! We WILL NOT TAKE THE DEATH SHOT!

1 month ago
user
Oh ya

What a load of crap. They are trying everything they can to get people to take their experimental biological agent. The CDC does not class this as a vaccine because it has never gone through long term studies. Any plandenic you have to bribe the people to believe is crap. Free food, trucks, cash, lotto tickets, donuts etc. And notice they do not even put the authors name just state some things like it is a Doctor. A doctor in what? Math?. Go to the goverment VEARS system and look at the stats of problems that have been reported. Why has nearly 40 countries banned the AstraZeneca jab and yet Panama os still using it? Did they find some on sale from countries that banned it. If you feel so safe taking the jab go ahead, you should then also feel fully protected, dont worry about us that don't.

1 month ago
user
Nubia

The wave is here already. Past time to put the sanitary fences and cuarentena. Minsa is acting slow and why? do they want another large spread?

1 month ago
The comments are the responsibility of each author who freely expresses his opinion and not that of Newsroom Panama.
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