The monthly index of economic activity increased of 12.8% in the accumulated period of January and February compared to the same period of the previous year, reports the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Inec).

February is the eleventh month in a row of increases in the monthly activity indicator compared to its similar figures from the previous year, a streak that contrasts with the 12 months in a row of falls registered between April 2020 and March 2021, in the midst of the pandemic.

The Inec  reports growth in activities such as construction, commerce, hotels, and restaurants, transport, storage and communications, electricity and water, manufacturing industries, real estate, agricultural and financial intermediation activities, among others.

The president of the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture, José Ramón Icaza, said: "The Imae of 12.8% as of February is not surprising, but as the year progresses the rate of growth should slow down because more similar periods will be compared," he said. Regarding the reactivation, Icaza said that it has not been the same for all sectors, highlighting the lag that exists in activities such as tourism.

Economist Felipe Chapman pointed out that last year there was unprecedented growth in the economy that no one expected (15.3%), something he described as good news for the country. On the Imae of the first two months of the year, he said it registers good behavior, also acknowledging that it is compared to the months of 2021 with restrictions.

Shadow of Ukraine
The indicator, however, still does not reflect the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which translates into an increase in the prices of fuel, food, fertilizers, and inputs necessary for the economy. This will lead, according to the expert, to a decrease in consumption data and, consequently, a lower speed in the Imae and the gross domestic product.

The economist Luis Alberto Morán pointed out that the data to February reflect signs of recovery, and warns that attention should be paid to the lagging and most vulnerable sectors. “At the economic level, the data should lead us to establish policies that also allow the improvement of the labor market, which is still slow.