Major US Bank lowers  projection for Panama but brighter future

1,539Views 2Comments Posted 22/07/2020


The Bank of America has revised downward its projection for the Panamanian economy for 2020 and predicts that the gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 10%, a far deeper fall than the 4% previously forecast but  has better prospects for emerging from the crisis than most Latin American countries.

The revision follows  the sharp drop expected for the second quarter, in which many activities have been paralyzed, and the extension of confinement in the fight  to contain the spread of COVID-19

The report indicates that the year will be difficult for Panama, as for the rest of world, and it highlights that the country has better prospects for emerging from the crisis than the vast majority of Latin American countries, “with positive growth estimates for the coming years (5.5% by 2021) and a level of debt that, despite the increase "It will remain at moderate levels when compared to other emerging markets."

The bank says that "the government moved quickly to cover its financing needs," something that other countries in the region did not do. Although a downgrade in the risk rating could happen in the next twelve months, the country would maintain the investment grade, supported by greater diversification of the economy, market policies and stable governance.

As“the most open economy in the region”, the country will be able to benefit from a rebound in world trade. In addition, the economy will also benefit from greater diversification since the Colón copper mine began operations, an activity that generated a contribution of one percentage point in GDP growth last year.